Strong consumer varieties in the second quarter of the recent sharp decline, including food and beverage plate up to August 16, nearly a month of cumulative decline of more than 15%, among which, shanxi fenjiu, luzhou laojiao, anji food, laiyifen and other market segments of the leading shares fell more than 20%, and 16, shuanghui development is down by the limit. As a weak market in the traditional safe harbor, food and beverage plate performance recently caused great concern in the market.
Analysis points out that the recent market on consumption growth concerns, food and beverage sector correction is in this context, the next year's growth is expected to lower the valuation of the fall. On the other hand, plate at the end of the second quarter, the proportion of institutional holdings rose again and was at the highest level since 2015. The market is also worried about the excessive concentration of institutional holdings.
Industry demand worries are overdone
According to the monitoring data of the All-China business information center, the retail sales of the 50 key large retail enterprises in China dropped by 3.9% in July 2018 compared with the same period last year, which is 8.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, 14 companies achieved positive year-on-year growth in retail sales.
In terms of categories, the retail sales of cereals, oils and foodstuffs, clothing, daily necessities, gold, silver and jewelry, and household appliances decreased by 2.8%, 3.8%, 5.7%, 1.8%, and 9.9%, respectively, down 3.5 percentage points, 10.6 percentage points, 5.4 percentage points, 5.6 percentage points, and 13.8 percentage points, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Retail sales of cosmetics grew 6.5 per cent, but growth slowed to 5.6 percentage points from a year earlier.
The data raised fears of a sharp drop in consumption. To this, founder securities analyst said, the data can only be used as a reference, need to continue to track. First of all, the statistical coverage of this data is only for 50 key retail enterprises in China, without statistics on circulation channels, e-commerce channels and other data, and the coverage of this data is limited for third-tier and fourth-tier cities. Secondly, the high-frequency data of consumer goods investment tracking on a monthly basis are easily misled, because the monthly data are easily affected by promotional policies, traditional holiday mistiming and other factors. Finally, the overall growth rate cannot reflect the growth rate of individuals. The growth rate of different sub-industries is significantly differentiated, and the growth rate of leading companies and small and medium-sized companies within the industry is also significantly different.
Liquor industry differentiation continued
Food and beverage plate recent decline is larger, pessimistic expectations have been released to a certain extent, how should the future?
China fortune securities said China's fast-moving consumer goods market grew at a faster pace in the second quarter, with sales up 4.7 per cent from a year earlier, faster than the 2.3 per cent increase in the first quarter and 4.3 per cent for the whole of last year. E-commerce is still an important engine for the development of FMCG market. Regionally, the western region led the way with a 6.8 percent growth rate. Current valuation has a certain degree of correction, in the historical median level. As a traditional defensive sector, the fundamentals of most sub-sectors can be determined, the performance is relatively strong, the food and beverage sector remains relatively optimistic attitude.
According to China merchants securities, the report of liquor companies in 2017 has been significantly accelerated, and the confidence of enterprises in 2018 has been rapidly improved. The annual target set at the beginning of the year is optimistic and positive, but the expected slope of target growth rate is too high, exceeding the capacity of terminal demand. At the same time, the company and dealers have lowered the full-year forecast, after the second quarter of destocking, the company's target is expected to return to reasonable. The direction of the industry boom does not change, at present, the probability of high growth in the report is relatively large, from the third quarter to return to steady growth, late to focus on the marginal change in terminal demand.
Liquor industry strong differentiation continues, kweichow moutai is expected to develop a school of its own fundamentals. The liquor industry is still developing a differentiation pattern. The core behind the differentiation is that after the consumers' right of speech is enhanced, their brand recognition will affect the income performance of enterprises. In this process, enterprises with base market, terminal control and core single product resources will continue to perform.
